Analyzing the "new" Government Covid-19 Statistics

If you haven't checked it out yet, check out which is the new government covid-19 stats page. Spend some time on it. There is a lot of information.

To me, the most interesting is new information on cases per 100,000. Assuming the use of the word "tamizado" really means something closer to "raw" than "sifted", try this:

  1. Click on casos tamizados in the left column.
  2. Look at the map.
  3. Say "aha".

The total count right now for "tamizados" is about 120,000 but the infection count is about 38,000. I am assuming it is the total test count. Then the map is showing testing frequency. It is much higher in the Guatemala department. If you switch to the confirmed case view, you see that confirmed cases per 100,000 is also much higher in the Guatemala department.

With the old statistics page it looked like you were more likely to be infected in Guatemala than, say, Sololá. What you now see is you are more likely to be counted as infected if you are tested and the result is positive. There is not enough information to know real infection rates by region (that would require a lot more testing to get decent sample sizes and selecting who to test would have to be consistent) there is nothing here to "verify" that infection is more likely in areas of higher population density.

For those in the U.S. saying that covid-19 infection rates continue to climb, I think this information may make you realize that more testing is the reason for more cases.